Harry Kane tops betting odds for Ballon d'Or as London ceremony approaches

Harry Kane is the 70 percent favorite to win the 2026 Ballon d'Or, according to bookmakers.

The prize will be awarded at the London Palladium in less than a day. The final list includes Kane, Lamine Yamal, and Kylian Mbappe. These three players are the main contenders for football's most prestigious individual honor.

Kane has kept his campaign for the award low-key. In contrast, Yamal and Mbappe have publicly backed their own chances. The 19-year-old Spanish winger and the French forward both believe they deserve the trophy.

Data analysts see the race differently. Avisia, a French firm using artificial intelligence, rates Yamal as the top pick. The model gives the Barcelona player a 23 percent chance. Kane follows at 21 percent. Mbappe sits at 19 percent, tied with last year's winner Rodri. Lionel Messi rounds out the top five at 18 percent. A win for Messi would mark his ninth Ballon d'Or. Avisia claims it correctly predicted the top five finalists for the 2025 award won by Ousmane Dembele.

Former players have weighed in on the decision. Atletico Madrid manager Diego Simeone supports Messi, who recently retired from international football. Simeone said that after the World Cup, Messi played at his age with no doubt about his quality. Former Italy international Marco Materazzi agreed, stating that Messi is in a different league at 38.

Current players also made picks. Jude Bellingham, who is on the shortlist, backed Kane. Bellingham called the England captain honest and hard-working. He said a win for Kane is definitely possible. Anthony Gordon sided with his Barcelona teammate Yamal, calling him on a whole other level. Aurelien Tchouameni supported Mbappe, describing the Frenchman's season as incredible.

The statistical cases for the top candidates are strong but complicated. Mbappe scored 25 goals in La Liga and 15 in the Champions League. He also took the World Cup Golden Boot and set a record for most World Cup goals with 12. Kane scored 73 goals last season, the most by any player since Messi scored 82 in 2011-12. However, Mbappe won no major trophies with club or country. Kane won the Bundesliga with Bayern Munich but led England to only third place at the World Cup. Yamal won the World Cup with Spain and La Liga with Barcelona. Injury affected his season, but his silverware history favors him. Only four of the previous 19 winners failed to win a major tournament. If Yamal wins, he will be the youngest recipient in history, breaking the record held by Brazil's Ronaldo, who was 21 in 1997.