AI and bookmakers split on Ballon d'Or pick
Yamal leads AI models while Kane holds a 70 percent bookmaker edge ahead of the London ceremony.
By Noah Dvorak ·
The 2026 Ballon d'Or winner will be named within 24 hours at the London Palladium.
Lamine Yamal, Kylian Mbappe, and Harry Kane are the primary contenders for the award. The ceremony honors the best player of the 2025-26 season. Yamal and Mbappe have publicly campaigned for the prize, while Kane has kept a lower profile.
Data from Avisia, a French analysis firm, places Yamal as the favorite with a 23 percent probability. Kane follows at 21 percent, and Mbappe sits at 19 percent. Rodri, the 2024 winner, is tied with Mbappe at 19 percent. Lionel Messi completes the top five with an 18 percent chance. Avisia states it correctly predicted the top five recipients last year, when Ousmane Dembele won.
Bookmakers offer a different view. They list Kane as the outright favorite with roughly a 70 percent probability of winning. This gap between the AI projection and the betting markets highlights the uncertainty surrounding the final vote.
Peers offer mixed support for the finalists. Atletico Madrid manager Diego Simeone endorsed Messi, noting his performance after the World Cup. Jude Bellingham backed Kane, describing him as honest and hard-working. Anthony Gordon praised Yamal, calling the Barcelona winger's level of play at age 19 ridiculous. Aurelien Tchouameni supported Mbappe, citing an incredible season for the Real Madrid forward.
Mbappe leads individual scoring charts with 25 La Liga goals and 15 Champions League goals. He also won the World Cup Golden Boot and set a record for most World Cup goals with 12. Kane scored 73 goals last season, the highest total since Messi's 82 in 2011-12. However, neither player won a major trophy with their club or country, a factor that weakens their cases.
Yamal won the World Cup with Spain and La Liga with Barcelona despite injury issues. Recent history favors title winners, as only four of the previous 19 Ballon d'Or recipients failed to win a major tournament. Yamal could become the youngest winner, surpassing Brazilian Ronaldo, who was 21 when he won in 1997.
Source: Al Jazeera
