Brazilian Presidency: Lula Secures Historic Fourth Term

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has won a fourth term in office, securing 51.79% of the vote against right-wing challenger Flávio Bolsonaro. The margin of victory stands at 4.4 million votes, marking the first time in the country's history that a president has won four terms since the return to civilian rule in 1985.

Lula’s victory followed a dramatic campaign where he reversed a deficit from the first round held on 4 October. Bolsonaro had led that initial count with 47% of the vote, compared to Lula’s 45%. In the runoff, Lula’s team focused on increasing voter turnout, a strategy that resulted in the largest drop in abstention between the first and second rounds of a presidential election since 1989. The previous round saw 33 million people fail to vote.

The election concluded with an unusual procedural adjustment. Polling stations were extended by two hours on Sunday evening, a decision made by the Supreme Court just as the standard closing time approached. Both campaigns requested the extension for different reasons. Lula’s team cited a lack of buses preventing voters in São Paulo and Bahia from reaching their stations. Flávio Bolsonaro’s campaign pointed to heavy rain in the south of the country and in São Paulo. The late ruling meant some stations that had already closed could not reopen.

Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of convicted former president Jair Bolsonaro, has refused to recognize the result. He called the outcome "inexplicable" and "impossible," demanding that the vote be annulled. However, electoral law experts consider this move unlikely to succeed. Fernando Neisser of the Institute of Lawyers of São Paulo noted that annulling the result would be "difficult from a legal standpoint" given the size of the victory margin. Alberto Rollo added that constitutional fixes for election dates complicate the legal challenge.

Supreme Court President Kassio Nunes Marques, who was appointed by the elder Bolsonaro, confirmed the validity of the count. He stated that the voting extension did not cause issues for the electoral process. Lula, who turns 81 on Tuesday, addressed celebratory crowds in São Paulo. He described the win as a "loss for negativity, lies" and declared, "Long live democracy."

Lula, a former metal worker, will serve a term lasting until 2030. His new term is set to begin on 5 January. He will be the first president in Brazilian history to hold four terms, having previously served from January 2003 to December 2010 and again from January 2023. Vice-President Geraldo Alckmin told Lula that he had "saved Brazilian democracy" for the second time.

The campaign was characterized by intense competition. Lula’s win bucks a trend in Latin America, where voters in Argentina, Chile, and Colombia have recently elected right-wing candidates. The result also lands during a period of diplomatic friction with the United States. President Donald Trump has supported Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a 27-year prison sentence after being convicted of a coup attempt. Flávio Bolsonaro met with Trump at the White House earlier this year.

In his victory speech, Lula referenced the "Donroe Doctrine," a term Trump uses to describe US dominance in the Western Hemisphere. Lula insisted that Brazil "will not accept being anyone's backyard." While Trump has not yet reacted, other world leaders have sent congratulations. Ecuador President Daniel Noboa Azin said the region has "common enemies" and "shared challenges." European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stated that "democracy and multilateralism" had won.

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez called the result a "great victory," noting that "the comeback of global progressivism has just begun." French President Emmanuel Macron said the two nations should work "in service of a more just world." South African President Cyril Ramaphosa described the victory as one for the "global south and progressive forces throughout the world."