Three seats and a former PM may decide Israel's next government

Political figures in Israel are weighing scenarios where a three-seat faction or a former prime minister could determine the outcome of the upcoming election. With voting set to begin less than a day from now, assessments within the establishment indicate that the final government may depend on narrow alliances rather than a clear mandate from the polls.

The central uncertainty involves Agudat Yisrael, a haredi group led by Yitzhak Goldknopf. Assessments suggest the faction may offer backing to a government led by the current opposition. In exchange for this support, Agudat Yisrael could demand specific budgetary agreements. Even if such a deal is struck, the new government might still require votes from Arab parties to pass legislation.

This potential cooperation is not new. Maariv reported in August that the faction was exploring options that included working with Gadi Eisenkot. These talks occurred against a backdrop of friction within United Torah Judaism. Agudat Yisrael expressed disappointment with the current coalition's behavior, while the rival Degel Hatorah faction signaled a lack of confidence in Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Rabbi Dov Lando also wrote a letter expressing reservations about maintaining the commitment to the Likud-led bloc.

Goldknopf faces a distinct risk if he pivots. His voter base is largely identified with the right. Political estimates suggest that any sign he is backing a change bloc government could drive some of his supporters toward Likud or Otzma Yehudit.

Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett is also a factor in the calculations. If neither the right nor the opposition wins a majority of 61 seats, Bennett could decide the shape of the next administration. One scenario involves him joining a Netanyahu-led government. Some political circles view him as the only leader in the change bloc capable of this move due to his right-wing background, though it would require shifting his base of support.

Avigdor Liberman has also been mentioned as a potential bridge, given his history as a defense minister under Netanyahu. However, current assessments hold that personal and political disagreements make this unlikely at this stage. For now, these possibilities remain scenarios and political assessments rather than formal agreements between the parties.