Election Eve: Likud Fractures Over Turnout Fears

Tensions are high inside the Likud party as Israeli voters prepare to cast ballots on Tuesday. One day before the election, sources indicate a sharp divide among party members regarding their chances of defeating Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. While some insiders remain confident in victory, others express concern over the intensity of the opposition's mobilization efforts.

The confidence camp relies heavily on the internal polling conducted by Shlomo Filber. A Likud source described the internal mood as a binary outcome tied to Filber's predictions: "Either Momo comes out a king, or Momo goes home. It’s one or the other." This reliance on specific internal data contrasts with the anxiety felt by those monitoring the broader campaign environment.

A primary source of worry for Likud is the financial and logistical support flowing to anti-Netanyahu groups through nonprofits. Party sources claim these organizations are injecting large sums of money to boost turnout in the rival camp. The efforts include social media pushes, street signs, field events, and transportation for Arab voters. Likud also cited campaigns to encourage Israelis living abroad to return for the vote. One source labeled this wave of activity "the nonprofits affair on steroids," arguing it provides the opposition with a support network that bypasses standard party financing rules.

Likud has also criticized the Central Elections Committee. The party claims the committee focused too heavily on enforcing limits for campaign videos and public resource use while overlooking the scale of nonprofit activity. However, sources did not provide documentation for the funding amounts cited or proof that the activities violated the law.

On the ground, Likud is preparing a large-scale operation for Election Day to prevent right-wing votes from drifting to smaller parties. Negotiations to persuade Brig.-Gen. (res.) Ofer Winter, head of the People of Israel party, to withdraw from the race failed. Rabbi Eli Sadan later issued a statement backing Winter. Likud is also courting supporters of the joint ticket formed by Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelekha. In a related development, Rabbi Abergel’s Ahi party has already dropped out of the race following talks with Likud, which included discussions about legislation allowing the party to name a deputy minister.

The election date of October 27 allows Netanyahu’s government to complete its full term. A survey published days before the vote found that nearly one-third of Israeli voters remained undecided, adding uncertainty to an already volatile political landscape.